From my experience betting on the Washington Nationals’ 2021 season opener, I discovered that live betting is not my cup of tea.
I understand. The appeal of live wagering is clear to me. I also comprehend how intelligent individuals, who are capable of making fast and accurate calculations, can find it quite profitable.
However, Tuesday’s experiment didn’t go as planned for me. Although, it had the potential to be a failure. The reason being, I was constantly making poor choices, doubting myself, and encountering unexpected technical difficulties. Surprisingly, these delays turned out to be a fortunate turn of events.
In reality, I didn’t make any live bets at all. Nevertheless, it was not due to a lack of effort nor a lack of interest.
It appears that I am quite terrible at live betting. It is simply not suitable for my personality and does not align with my preferred betting approach. Moreover, it has made my sports-watching experience extremely unpleasant, thereby negating its intended purpose.
However, acquiring that knowledge must surely have some value, doesn’t it?
My game plan for live betting
At PlayVirginia, I have been granted a great degree of freedom to delve into various subjects that pique my interest. This liberty has allowed me to embark on exciting adventures like visiting a historical horse racing parlor, engaging in a conversation with a promising UFC contender, and conducting an informal analysis of sports-betting markets in different states.
With the start of the MLB season, it felt like the ideal moment to shift my attention towards live betting. Considering the game’s potential for live-wagering chances, I saw it as an exciting way to enhance my usual MLB betting experience.
Being originally from Ohio, my heart will always belong to the Cincinnati Reds. However, living in Virginia has made me develop a newfound affection for the Washington Nationals. Due to the unfortunate circumstances of COVID-19, the Nats had to postpone the beginning of their season. Nevertheless, I decided to seize the opportunity and place a live bet on Tuesday’s rescheduled Opening Day game against the Atlanta Braves.
Just before the first pitch, the Nationals found themselves with a roster that was lacking key players, causing uncertainty around Max Scherzer’s status as the team’s ace. Additionally, the Opening Day odds were fluctuating unpredictably.
Can my years of semi-serious sports betting help me discover value? Is it possible for me to predict market trends and make smart moves at the right time? Will live betting enhance my passion for sports wagering to a higher level?
Pffft. Nope.
This is the detailed account of how it unfolded, minute by excruciating minute.
Game-day diary: Live wagering on the Nationals
At 8:52 a.m., like most mornings, I review the MLB lines for the day. Even though the Nationals and Braves game is later, I’m excited to make a totals bet. I noticed that DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and BetRivers all have the option of “over 7.5 runs” with -115 odds. On the other hand, WynnBET has set the total at 8, with the over being -110. Unfortunately, when I logged into Virginia’s only other sportsbook, William Hill, it was experiencing technical difficulties. In the end, I decided to place my pregame bet at DraftKings. As for any other bets, I decided to wait and see what the live betting market had to offer.
At 3:30 p.m., I switch on MASN2 to catch the Nats pre-game show called “Nats Xtra.” The hosts engage in a conversation about Washington’s makeshift lineup and the numerous uncertainties surrounding their 2021 season as it commences.
At 3:37 p.m., I notice Max Scherzer, a former Mizzou Tiger, warming up for the Nationals. He had a challenging 2020 season due to the pandemic. Despite his impressive track record of winning three Cy Young Awards and consistently ranking in the top five since 2013, Scherzer didn’t receive any votes in 2020. It seems like people are underestimating his potential as a future MLB Hall of Famer, and I’m becoming more confident that I can take advantage of this insight when the live odds become available.
At 3:40 p.m., a lengthy DraftKings advertisement airs during the pregame show. The presenter provides a detailed explanation of parlays and highlights the current promotion where betting $1 can potentially win $100. Having previously worked in an MLB front office, I find it difficult to comprehend the recent shift towards MLB endorsing sports betting, especially considering Pete Rose’s involvement in the league for numerous years.
At 3:58 p.m., as part of the pregame festivities, the Nats pay tribute to slugger Juan Soto for his 2020 batting title. Anticipating a remarkable performance from Soto, I believe it contributes to my preference for betting on the over in this game.
At 3:59 p.m., the Nats, who were previously deprived of the authentic 2020 Opening Day festivities, joyfully commemorate their victorious 2019 World Series triumph and proudly exhibit the championship banners for their enthusiastic fans to witness.
At 4:02 p.m., the Nationals’ odds at William Hill have dropped from -125 to -111 right before the start of the game. The skepticism towards Scherzer is becoming excessive, but I believe he will perform well. He has consistently struck out at least 10 batters in his past four Opening Day starts. If he has a smooth first inning, I anticipate the odds becoming even less favorable. Therefore, I have decided to take advantage of the tempting -111 line and place my bet.
At 4:03 p.m., frustration sets in. I realize that I haven’t funded my William Hill account, the only sportsbook I have in Virginia. By the time I check my deposit options, the pregame odds have already closed, and the opportunity to bet at -111 is lost. Regret consumes me.
At 4:07 p.m., Scherzer threw his first pitch of the inning, marking the Nationals’ debut in the 2021 season. However, Ronald Acuna Jr. crushed that pitch deep into left field. Thankfully, I managed to avoid a potential loss as the William Hill bet didn’t go through.
At 4:08 p.m., the Nationals’ odds at William Hill rise to +140 following an impressive home run. However, after a skillful strikeout, the odds stabilize between +110 to +120 across different sportsbooks. While baseball is generally known for its leisurely pace, the live odds make every pitch seem like a thrilling moment, particularly with the team’s strong start in the game.
At 4:10 p.m., Scherzer appears to have recovered from the initial home run. It was just a temporary setback, and I remain confident that he will have an outstanding start. Wanting to take advantage of this situation, I notice that FanDuel offers the Nationals at +130 odds. However, when I try to place my bet, I realize that I have been logged out due to inactivity. As I attempt to log back in, I see the odds decrease to +128. Every passing second feels like a missed opportunity to make money. Finally, when I manage to log back in, I am ready to go for the +128 odds, but unfortunately, all the sportsbooks’ lines are locked. I will have to wait for new lines to appear. Once again, I find myself shut out and feeling frustrated with the situation.
At 4:11 p.m., Scherzer unfortunately allowed another home run as Freddie Freeman crushed that ball. I suppose it’s time for me to stop complaining about not placing that bet. Quite disappointing.
At 4:12 p.m., the Nats fall behind 2-0, causing the live odds to skyrocket to +200. Frustrated by my unsuccessful hunches, anxiety starts to creep in as I anxiously observe the fluctuating lines, desperately searching for a course of action.
4:13 p.m. – Forget it. I need a break. It’s too early in this game to feel so confused.
At 4:14 p.m., I suddenly recalled placing a bet on over 7.5 runs before the game started. As of now, that bet seems quite promising. I must admit, I feel quite clever.
At 4:22 p.m., following Braves starter Drew Smyly’s impressive first inning, the Nationals’ live odds stand at +240. It would be foolish not to consider taking that opportunity, wouldn’t it? However, let’s remain calm, Dann.
At 4:25 p.m., Scherzer allows yet another home run, leaving Washington trailing 3-0. I’ve been completely unsuccessful with my live-betting predictions, going 0-for-3. Fortunately, technical delays and uncertainty have prevented my bankroll from taking a hit. It’s a relief to know that I’m not even competent enough to be a poor bettor.
At 4:27 p.m., the second inning begins and Washington’s odds stand at +330. Despite the enticing offer, I resist the temptation to bet. Instead, I choose to patiently wait for some scoring action. My pregame bet on over 7.5 runs becomes my ultimate gamble for this game.
At 4:33 p.m., I reconsidered my options and realized I could increase my bet. Upon reviewing the live total, I noticed that the over 9.5 runs had odds of +105. However, upon reflection, I questioned whether I had a valid reason to increase my initial bet, especially considering the higher total I would need to achieve. Ultimately, I decided against it as I didn’t want to bet just for the sake of betting. I chose to stick with my initial wager and simply enjoy the game.
At 4:35 p.m., the Nats have just hit consecutive singles, placing runners on the corners with two outs. A single powerful hit could potentially bring them back into the game. Should I consider betting on the Nats and the over? It’s a tough decision with limited time. The lines are rapidly changing on my screen as I switch between different browser tabs.
It’s 4:37 p.m. and to be honest, I’m not liking this constant feeling of urgency. It’s making it hard for me to think clearly. I feel paralyzed as I contemplate whether there’s a good opportunity to place a bet. It’s becoming clear to me that this kind of behavior isn’t healthy or enjoyable. I’ve reached a point where I could convince myself to bet on the over regardless of the total or odds. It’s time for me to relax and take a step back. Knowing my luck, these two teams probably won’t score another run for the next seven innings.
At 4:38 p.m., Nationals catcher Jonathan Lucroy hits a two-run double, which adds more runs to the board and brings the Nats closer to the Braves, who are currently leading 3-2. It’s frustrating to ponder the missed opportunities in my earlier bets, but I decide to refrain from further gambling for the day.
At 4:42 p.m., the Braves hit another homerun courtesy of Acuna, increasing their lead to 4-2. Annoyed by this turn of events, I quickly glance at the live odds before switching off the game. Deciding to take my dog for her evening walk, I head out.
At 4:56 p.m., glancing at my phone, I find satisfaction in knowing that I am no longer fretting over this game. My ability to remain composed and make wise decisions fills me with pride.
At 4:57 p.m., frustration sets in as Trea Turner hits a home run, resulting in a 4-4 tie for the Nationals. Despite my pregame bet on the over 7.5 runs already winning in the third inning, instead of feeling thrilled, I find myself annoyed for not taking advantage of the enticing live bets with favorable odds. Regrettably, my mind fixates on the missed opportunities rather than acknowledging my guaranteed victory in this game.
Stewing at 4:58 p.m., I find this situation utterly ridiculous. Who in their right mind would do this for enjoyment? Now even my walk is completely ruined.
It’s 5:02 p.m. and it feels like I’ve been doing this live-betting thing forever, even though it’s only been an hour. I can’t help but keep checking the live boxscore. But before I even consider looking at the live odds, I make a final decision to formally quit. The experiment is officially over.
Epilogue: Of course the Nationals won
I exited my bet early and missed out on an amazing game.
The Nationals, in fact, secured a victory with a walk-off hit, displaying their refusal to be defeated. With late-inning runs, the team initiated a thrilling and heart-pounding beginning to their season.
It so happens that each of the live bets I had contemplated making would have been successful. Whether it was at odds of -111, +140, +118, +240, or +330, any of those wagers on the Nationals would have resulted in a win. Even the additional totals bet would have effortlessly yielded a cash prize.
However, I was simply relieved to have exited at the time I did. Moreover, thanks to my pre-game bet, I ended the day with a record of 1-0.
However, this should not be seen as a criticism of live wagering. There are some individuals, particularly MMA bettors, who have shown great skill in making live bets. Similar to a skilled defensive coordinator, they have the ability to quickly adjust or discard their pregame strategies based on how the events unfold.
These individuals, both men and women, find pleasure in engaging in such activities. They consider it a source of entertainment, their preferred way to have fun.
These individuals are truly twisted, I must say.
To be completely honest, some of you might find live betting to be quite exhilarating, and perhaps you already do. However, as for me, I prefer to stick with pregame betting for the time being. It might not be the most financially advantageous choice, but I believe it contributes positively to my sanity.
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