In the not-so-distant past, the Washington Nationals clinched their inaugural World Series championship, marking a significant milestone for the franchise. Alas, the tides have shifted, and presently the team is anticipated to conclude the season in the lower echelons of the league standings.
Consequently, individuals interested in placing a futures bet on the team for the upcoming 2022 season face unfavorable odds in Old Dominion.
The Washington Nationals find themselves in a comparable position to their American League counterparts, the Baltimore Orioles. Nevertheless, there are notable distinctions in the betting market that, from my perspective, make the Nationals far less appealing.
Naturally, my viewpoint should not be considered absolute truth. I lack expertise as a professional sports bettor, so please don’t regard this article as such. If you choose to engage in betting activities through Virginia’s various online sportsbooks or the newly established BetMGM sportsbook located within Nationals Park, it is crucial to exercise responsible gambling and conduct your own research.
In addition, it is important to take into account the consequences of the ongoing lockout. The ongoing labor dispute between the players union and the owners has the potential to impact the length of the 2022 schedule. As a result, any changes made to the schedule could potentially affect the credibility of your bets.
Returning to my central argument, it appears that the Orioles have reached their lowest point in the betting market, borrowing a phrase from the financial industry.
If purchasing equities immediately after the stock market crash of March 2020 is comparable to the Orioles, then acquiring them during the decline would be akin to the Nationals.
While there are potential benefits to consider, it’s crucial to evaluate if the drawbacks have reached their limit. Could the team hit rock bottom in 2022, making the 2025 futures market the perfect chance to seize unexpected success?
Regardless, let’s delve into the statistics.
Washington Nationals win total: Over/under 68.5
The Washington win total over/under succinctly captures the essence of my previous paragraphs.
It should be relatively easy for almost any Major League Baseball franchise to win 69 games. Only six teams in the league fell short of that mark during the 2021 season.
One of the teams facing a major issue was the Nationals. They ended the season in last place within their division with a disappointing 65-97 record. Furthermore, their record was only superior to that of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers, and Baltimore Orioles.
Following that, the inquiry arises as to whether the roster has improved or declined in preparation for 2022.
When Max Scherzer and Trea Turner were traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the franchise suffered the loss of its top starting pitcher and starting shortstop last season. However, the team can take solace in the fact that they still have Juan Soto, who is a strong contender for the NL MVP title, along with experienced pitchers Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin.
Soto can be considered a sure bet for delivering top-tier performance, while Strasburg, who was chosen first overall in the 2009 MLB draft, has been plagued by injuries in recent years. Furthermore, Corbin had his worst season in 2021.
Is Strasburg in good health? Can Corbin make a comeback or is he entering a decline phase? If both of these players perform well, the team’s victory count of 69 games will be easily achieved.
If not, it could potentially become an incredibly disappointing year for baseball fans in the nation’s capital. With numerous uncertainties, I find it difficult to have confidence in placing a bet on the over/under.
If I had to choose a side, I would reluctantly choose the under.
Odds for the Washington Nationals to win the NL East: +2,000
Aside from considering the over/under win total, I approach the futures market as a mathematical puzzle. I analyze the odds I am given and use my estimation skills to determine whether it would be profitable in the long term.
In this scenario, the sportsbook is offering you odds of 20-to-1 for the Nationals to win the division. This prompts me to ponder, “If the 2022 season were to be played 20 times, would the Nationals emerge victorious in the NL East at least once?”
When I ponder over this question, my immediate reaction is, “I am completely clueless.”
It feels as though the individuals responsible for setting the lines are professionals in their field. If the price were just a little worse, I would definitely decline. On the other hand, if it were slightly better, I would naturally expect it.
To gauge the extent of improvement required, let’s review the standings from the previous year.
- Atlanta Braves: 88-73
- Philadelphia Phillies: 82-80
- New York Mets: 77-85
- Miami Marlins: 67-95
- Washington Nationals: 65-97
At first glance, I would say, “Sure, they have a one in 20 chance of winning the division. None of those teams appear to be exceptionally strong.”
However, the Braves will be welcoming back almost the entire roster from last year, which was strong enough to secure the 2021 World Series victory.
Do you recall the Scherzer trade I brought up earlier? Following his stint in Los Angeles, he subsequently joined the Mets in the offseason.
What’s even more significant is that the pitcher who has been Washington’s top performer in recent years will now be competing against them.
Furthermore, it is possible that Scherzer may not hold the title of the top pitcher on his new team. He is expected to assume the second position in the team’s rotation, with Jacob DeGrom, a two-time Cy Young winner, taking the lead.
The further I delve into discussing this division, the stronger my desire becomes to steer clear of this wager.
Odds to win the NL pennant: +5,000, Odds on a World Series title: +10,000
I believed it was appropriate to combine these two bets since they ultimately lead to asking oneself the same question.
Can the Nationals make it to the playoffs?
In the event that the Nationals qualify for the playoffs, they have a 1 in 100 chance of securing the World Series title, or a 1 in 50 chance of winning the pennant. It is highly unlikely for any team that reaches the postseason to be considered such a significant underdog in a 10-team tournament setup.
In 2022, let’s envision an ideal situation for Washington. Strasburg exhibits his dominance, Corbin regains his previous form, and Soto emerges victorious as the MVP.
If those events unfold, the team will find itself in the playoff race, which should compel management to take action in the trade market to enhance the team.
If you’re a dedicated fan and just want a little excitement for the season, these lines might not be so bad. However, I wouldn’t be overly eager to place these bets in the first place.
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