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The point of the game is to be the first player at the table to hold a hand amounting to a count of nine. The game is simple with a few rules and only three payout possibilities. I first came across baccarat whilst talking to members of my Ultimate Roulette System (URS) at a gambling forum. After several requests from the forum members for me to develop a baccarat system similar to the URS, I rose to the challenge and began playing baccarat. I was surprised at its simplicity. After having worked on the complex URS for many years, it was refreshing to begin work on such a simple yet exciting system. A short while later I developed the Ultimate Baccarat System (UBS). This system exploited online baccarat flaws and patterns through several simple yet highly effective observations I made. Here I will attempt to explain how this system works and how it can be used to consistently win at online baccarat.

Statistical Strategies

Baccarat can be simplified by drawing an analogy to a three-sided die game. One side of the die represents Player, the second side Banker and the third side a Tie. Whilst in the three-sided die game the chances of rolling any of the three sides is equal, this is not true for baccarat. There is less chance of rolling a Tie than there is for rolling a Banker or a Player. However, because there are no negative consequences for rolling a Tie, we can ignore it and consider the Player and Banker only in our game. This changes our game to a coin toss game, where one side of the coin represents Player and the other side Banker. There is thus a 50/50 chance of the Player winning or the Banker winning. Because of this, we can apply a few techniques that will increase the chances of winning if we bet on either one of the two. Before we delve into these techniques, let us first look at some of the patterns you will spot at online casino baccarat games.

The Popular Banker Observation

When you play online baccarat you will notice that the number of wins differs between Players and Bankers. I am not suggesting that the casinos cheat; however, they stand to make more money when the Banker wins as they charge commission on Banker wins as opposed to no commission charges on Player wins. It, therefore, makes sense that they should aim to have the Banker win more than the Player. In the table below we see the results from a 766 round baccarat game in which the Banker led in wins by 14.6% over the Player. This is a clear advantage over and above the commission based casino edge already applied to the game.

Player: 321     Banker: 376       Tie: 6

I point out this observation just to show those who hold the belief that online baccarat is based purely on probability—clearly it is not. And because it is not, we can take advantage of the disadvantage by betting mainly on the Banker. “Ahhh, but…” you say, “what about the commission charges?”. Firstly, if you win 14.6% more than you lose, you can afford the commission charges, secondly, there is now an online casino solution to this problem–the Betfair “Zero Lounge”. Betfair now offers a baccarat game without the casino edge applied.

In baccarat game cards are assigned numbered, but the perfect total number is 9 and players cannot bust. If the total number of the hand exceeds 9, 10 is subtracted, so 10 points become 0, 11 becomes 1 and so on. Apart from this, players do not make any playing decisions during the game, but there are strict rules on when to deal an additional card and when to stand. In fact, there is only one player’s hand dealt at the table for all players. To let players participate in the game somehow, baccarat players can choose not to bet on the player’s hand, but can bet on the bank or on the tie as well. So, in baccarat, players must not beat the dealer, but to bet on the right result, like in sports betting. This creates a problem: if the dealer has privileges, the players who bet on the bank will have positive expectations. To eliminate this effect, casinos simply charge a 5 percent fee on all winnings on the bank bets.

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