Can the Surging Liberty Flames Become Kings of Virginia Football?

Written By Dann Stupp on November 18, 2020

Is it possible for Liberty University, an unbeaten and highly ranked football team that is gaining attention across Virginia, to surpass the University of Virginia and Virginia Tech as the favorite football program in the commonwealth?

We discovered from several of the nation’s leading sportsbooks that it would be an extremely difficult challenge.

If Liberty University manages to maintain its exceptional performance throughout the year, it has the potential to end the 2020 college football season with what several sportsbook operators predict to be the most significant regular-season game among independent teams.

At present, Liberty University’s football team, known as the Flames, holds an impressive record of 8 wins and 0 losses. Despite their success, the Flames do not belong to any football conference within the NCAA Division I. It was only in 2019 that they attained full NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) status, following a provisional status the previous year. Now, in just their second season as a full FBS member, the Flames have achieved a remarkable feat.

Liberty, ranked 21st in the AP Poll and 22nd in the Coaches Poll, is set to face NC State (5-3) on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. The Flames, along with No. 8-ranked BYU (8-0), are the sole independents in the top 25. Additionally, Liberty and BYU are among the select group of five undefeated Division I teams with a minimum of seven wins this season.

This year has been truly unique for Liberty, particularly due to the unprecedented circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic, constant alterations to the schedule, worries surrounding coronavirus testing, and the widely publicized removal of Jerry Falwell Jr. as the president of this private evangelical Christian institution.

Despite this, are sports fans, particularly sports bettors, paying attention to how well second-year head coach Hugh Freeze’s football team is performing on the field?

Is winning the lone key for Liberty University?

The Flames’ 2020 season commenced with a modest beginning. They kicked off the campaign by securing close victories over Western Kentucky (30-24) and Florida International (36-34).

Nevertheless, Liberty demonstrated their dominance by defeating North Alabama, UL Monroe, Syracuse, and Southern Miss consecutively. Their impressive streak continued as they secured a remarkable 38-35 victory over the formidable Virginia Tech on November 7, which culminated in one of the most thrilling endings of the year.

After the crucial victory for the program, Head Coach Freeze expressed,

Today, as I sit here, I am confident that there is no greater accomplishment. This achievement is not only significant for our children, but also for our program and administration. To have the opportunity to compete against a prominent team is truly a source of immense pride. Instances like this are rare in team sports, especially for a school that is in the early stages of establishing a program and has recently transitioned to the FBS level. It is truly euphoric to have secured two victories against Power Five opponents in only our second year.

Liberty’s flawless performance has caught everyone’s attention. Their impressive rise in the Top 25 rankings has been surprising. However, their victory against the Hokies is an accomplishment that even sports bettors cannot overlook.

“According to FanDuel Director of Publicity Kevin Hennessy, Liberty’s popularity has been steadily increasing each week as they maintain an undefeated record and garner notable national recognition.”

The Flames’ triumph against the Hokies proved their worthiness of the top-25 ranking and captured the admiration of sports bettors as they emerged victorious despite being 17-point underdogs (+525 on the moneyline).

When discussing Liberty’s popularity in 2020, it is difficult to overlook the significant contribution of sports bettors in igniting much of that interest.

And as the saying goes, good teams achieve victory, but great teams surpass expectations.

According to a statement made by BetMGM officials, ranked teams consistently attract more attention from the public, and this holds true even for mid-major teams in the top 25. Additionally, the fact that Liberty has a 6-2 record against the spread this season further enhances their appeal.

Can the Flames supplant the Cavaliers and Hokies?

Malik Willis, the Liberty quarterback who transferred from Auburn University, is currently experiencing a remarkable season.

He has received some Heisman Trophy consideration due to his impressive performance in both passing (235 yards/game, 15 touchdowns, 1 interception) and rushing (700 yards, 7.1 yards/carry, 9 TDs) for the Flames.

However, despite having a potential Heisman contender, an unbeaten record, and a spot in the top 25 rankings, Liberty University still struggles to establish itself as a dominant brand. Especially in Virginia, where the long-standing UVA Cavaliers and VT Hokies reign supreme.

According to BetMGM officials, the handle on a game is significantly influenced by the matchups, and in most cases, Virginia Tech attracts more betting activity compared to a ranked mid-major team like Liberty. For instance, during the recent game where Virginia Tech faced off against No. 9 Miami, we received approximately six to seven times more wagers on Virginia Tech compared to Liberty.

Additionally, something that hinders Liberty is its limited exposure on television. While the Flames have secured a handful of nationally televised games on ESPNU this season, the majority of their matches are broadcasted or streamed on the less prominent platforms such as ESPN3 and ACC Network. Moreover, every Liberty game leading up to the Saturday evening clash with NC State has commenced at either noon or 1 p.m. In fact, almost twice as many games start at noon rather than at 7 p.m., intensifying the competition for viewers’ attention.

According to Hennessy, the trend in college football betting at FanDuel is primarily influenced by television broadcasts. Saturday-night TV games, in particular, consistently generate the highest overall betting activity.

Despite Liberty’s success as a mid-major this season, casual bettors continue to gravitate towards the well-known programs.

Hennessy stated that in the game against Virginia Tech, a significant portion of Liberty’s season volume and bet count, specifically 33%, was recorded.

Individual states drive sports betting handle

College football bettors have a strong inclination towards placing wagers on their local universities. DraftKings officials have confirmed that states with thriving and legalized sports betting markets have the potential to significantly influence betting activities across the country.

According to DraftKings, it is not surprising that West Virginia sports bettors primarily wager on West Virginia University games. Similarly, Penn State dominates the betting preferences of Pennsylvania residents, while Indiana University and Notre Dame enjoy a similar position in Indiana.

According to FanDuel, Penn State poses a significant risk to the sportsbook’s national championship market. This is mainly because Pennsylvania boasts a massive market, with over $4 billion in bets placed since the legalization of sports betting two years ago. As expected, Pennsylvanians show a strong inclination towards predicting Penn State as the national champion.

Moreover, the University of Colorado vs. Stanford game emerged as one of the highly favored games at sportsbooks last week. Surprisingly, although DraftKings operates in eight states across the US, a substantial portion of the total bets placed on the game originated from Colorado alone, accounting for over half of its handle.

Starting from January, bettors will have the opportunity to engage with VA sports betting apps as Virginia prepares to introduce legal sports betting. Nevertheless, it is important to note that this does not imply an increase in betting on Virginia schools like Liberty. In fact, the state legislators have explicitly prohibited betting on in-state colleges and universities as part of the recent legalization endeavors.

The decision, although well-intentioned, is myopic and prevents Virginia bettors from placing bets on their local schools. This ban particularly affects mid-major teams like Liberty University, Old Dominion University, and Norfolk State University, as the bettors who are most likely to wager on these teams will now be unable to do so within the bounds of the law.

Looking ahead to Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina

When it comes to the rest of the 2020 Liberty football season, it’s challenging to not focus on the future.

Although Liberty is once again the underdog, with NC State holding a 3.5 point advantage, their upcoming game on Saturday presents a chance for a small upset. If the Flames manage to secure this victory and then defeat the winless University of Massachusetts in the following week, it could be their best opportunity of the year to gain recognition.

In the upcoming season finale, Liberty will face off against Coastal Carolina (7-0). Similar to Liberty, the No. 15 CC Chanticleers are also ranked, unbeaten, and relatively unknown to the general public. Nevertheless, if both teams manage to maintain their undefeated records leading up to their December 5 clash in Conway, SC, they can anticipate a nationwide televised audience and significant buzz surrounding this showdown between undefeated opponents.

That opportunity is unmatched, even by Virginia Tech and Virginia.

Hennessy stated that both VA Tech and Virginia have maintained a consistent performance throughout the year in terms of handle. However, should Liberty manage to remain undefeated, we are highly confident in asserting that the game against Coastal Carolina at the end of the year will be the most significant G5/independent game of the year.

Photo by AP / James Kenney
Dann Stupp Avatar
Written by

Dann Stupp

Living in Lexington, Virginia, Dann Stupp is a highly experienced sports journalist with an impressive portfolio of written and edited work for esteemed outlets such as The Athletic, USA Today, ESPN, and MLB.com.

View all posts by Dann Stupp