I reached out to 14 highly knowledgeable individuals in the combat-sports realm and inquired about their perspectives on the upcoming professional boxing match between Jake Paul and Ben Askren, taking place on Saturday.
While a few hesitated, the majority showed unapologetic enthusiasm. Ultimately, 13 out of the 14 individuals expressed their intention to either watch or stream the pay-per-view event, regardless of the means.
While Paul and Askren may not fit the conventional definition of professional boxers, their match is far from being comparable to Screech vs. Horshack.
In the realm of celebrity-ish combat sports, this matchup between a YouTube sensation and a former MMA champion seems just as fitting as any other. Both individuals are renowned for their outspoken nature and are ready to battle it out.
Why Jake Paul vs. Ben Askren?
Laura Sanko, a UFC on ESPN reporter and analyst, expressed that there is indeed a demand for fights that are driven by the curiosity of “I wonder what would happen if…”. She clarifies that these fights should not be seen in the same light as traditional UFC fights, as they are purely driven by curiosity.
However, they are not complete novices. Askren, a former Olympic wrestler, achieved success in MMA by winning titles in Bellator and ONE Championship before transitioning to the UFC later in his career. On the other hand, Paul, who has a significant portion of his Wikipedia page dedicated to “Controversies,” holds a professional boxing record of 2-0. He has secured knockout victories against NBA veteran Nate Robinson and an individual known as “AnEsonGib.”
“The Paul-Askren fight is utterly nonsensical,” expressed Chuck Mindenhall, an experienced MMA journalist and co-host of The Man and the MITH podcast. He further added, “It’s absurd, completely unnecessary, and impossible to provide any valid justification. However, despite all this, my curiosity is inexplicably aroused.”
Paul and Askren are skilled at talking trash, which has generated excitement. Consequently, this has resulted in the highly anticipated event of the weekend that no one wants to miss, even if they won’t admit it.
Joey Oddessa, the combat-sports oddsmaker, also mentioned the multitude of bettors eager to make profits.
Jake Paul vs. Ben Askren betting promo
It is undeniable that there is genuine interest in this fight, which will not only attract traditional boxing and MMA fans but also a wider audience who will be willing to pay $50 for PPV through Triller. The bout will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Lance Fischel, host of The MMA Analysis podcast, pointed out that the widespread discussion surrounding this fight is a clear indication of people’s fascination with a spectacle.
Manpreet Jhass of MMA Lock of the Night agreed that although it may be a joke, it is generating a lot of attention and us, being dedicated combat sports fans, must acknowledge that.
DraftKings Sportsbook has introduced a unique promotion exclusively for this fight, which serves as one of the reasons behind its popularity. If you are depositing for the first time, you can place a $1 bet on either fighter and if they manage to land a single punch (which is highly likely even over the span of eight rounds), you will receive $100 in free bets.
To participate, all you need to do is make a minimum deposit of $5 into your account and place a $1 bet on either fighter before the main event commences. After your bet is finalized, you will receive four $25 free bets, provided that your chosen fighter manages to land a punch. For more information, please refer to the provided link.
However, what if you are interested in placing a more conventional bet?
Jake Paul vs. Ben Askren odds
As of Friday, odds for the “celebrity fight” had been posted by five out of six Virginia sportsbooks.
As of now, Paul is considered the favored contender with a -177 odds at DraftKings, while Askren is the underdog at +160 odds at William Hill VA. To make a profit of $10, you would have to wager $17.70 on Paul. Conversely, if you placed a $10 bet on Askren and won, you would earn a profit of $16.
Is that line correct?
We inquired with a panel of renowned combat-sports experts to provide us with their estimations of Paul’s likelihood of winning. The responses varied, starting from a mere 20% by “MMA Junkie Radio” host Brian “Goze” Garcia, and reaching as high as 90% by Andreas Hale, the senior editor of combat sports for Sporting News.
In summary, the average score stood at 58%, indicating a -138 line for Paul and a +138 line for Askren (without any juice or vigorish).
Based on the consensus odds established by the group, it is evident that Askren holds the greater value.
Paul vs. Askren method of victory
If you want a definite choice without considering the odds, Paul is the one to go for. Out of the 13 analysts who provided predictions, eight selected Paul while five opted for Askren.
This is the breakdown of our expert selections:
- Jake Paul has won seven of his fights by knockout or technical knockout, which accounts for 54% of his victories.
- Jake Paul wins by decision: 1 out of 12 fights (8%).
- Ben Askren has won via KO/TKO once, accounting for 8% of his victories.
- Ben Askren wins by decision, scoring 4 out of 10 (31%).
At the sportsbooks, you also have the option to place bets on that specific method of victory.
The most favorable chances for these different bets are as follows:
- At DraftKings, the odds for Jake Paul winning by KO/TKO/DQ are -112 (53%).
- At BetMGM or DraftKings, the odds for Jake Paul winning by decision are +600 (14%).
- At DraftKings, the odds for Ben Askren to win by KO/TKO/DQ are +375 (21%).
- At BetMGM, the odds for Ben Askren winning by decision are +400 (20%).
- FanDuel offers a lucrative prize of +2000 (4.8%) for those who participate and emerge victorious.
Other Askren-Paul prop bets
Naturally, given the immense significance of this “fight,” the sportsbooks have introduced an array of additional prop bets.
Novelty wagers can be found in a wide variety of forms.
Here’s a sampling:
- The options for betting on DraftKings are either to bet on the fight going over 5.5 rounds with odds of +100 or to bet on the fight going under 5.5 rounds with odds of -134.
- William Hill is offering odds for the fight to either go the distance with a “Yes” option at +175 or not go the distance with a “No” option at -250.
- BetMGM offers various alternate round totals, such as under/over 2 rounds with odds of +600 for under and -1200 for over. Additionally, they provide under/over 7 rounds with -175 for under and +125 for over, among other options.
- BetRivers offers various betting options on the outcome of the Jake Paul vs. Ben Askren fight. These options include betting on Jake Paul winning in Round 1 with odds of +700, Ben Askren winning in Round 2 with odds of +2500, and many more options.
Do these propositions hold any value?
It is widely agreed upon that as the bout progresses, Askren is more likely to have the advantage. This is due to his impressive achievements as a two-time NCAA Division I national champion in wrestling and an Olympian, which indicates his strong cardio abilities.
According to AJ Schullo, a skilled bettor and content creator for DFS, betting, and sports, Askren is expected to frequently engage in clinching, a strategy that could exhaust Paul if his endurance is lacking. However, Askren’s tendency to lead with his head-on entries makes him susceptible to an uppercut or a counter right hand, which Paul can take advantage of.
However, consider this: if you believe that Askren has the ability to dominate in the later rounds and secure a stoppage, there are some significant potential winnings to be had. BetRivers offers generous payouts of +3300 if Askren wins in Round 6, +4000 if he wins in Round 7, and an even higher payout of +5000 if he wins in Round 8.
A history of spectacle over sport
After all, many share the sentiment that this entire situation is detrimental to MMA, boxing, and combat sports in general.
However, our informal survey revealed that being prudish is unnecessary. In recent times, combat sports have evolved beyond being solely focused on pure athleticism. The element of spectacle holds equal significance.
“There’s more to combat sports than just being a pure, untouchable art form,” expressed Fernanda Prates, a podcaster and MMA writer for Fanbyte. “There’s also an element of entertainment that has its place.”
The co-main event of the mega-event is an excellent opportunity for undercard fighters, as highlighted by Milo Taibi, a content developer at Catena Media. Among these talented fighters is Regis Prograis (25-1), who will be facing Ivan Redkach (23-5-1) and is considered to possess exceptional skills.
Hale from Sporting News also highlighted that it serves as an excellent conduit to attract a crucial younger demographic for combat sports.
It is possible that 24-year-old Paul has the ability to attract younger fans, but he also has the potential to become a genuine talent in the future.
Manouk Akopyan, a combat sports reporter for the Los Angeles Times and BoxingScene.com, stated that Jake Paul is beneficial for boxing, despite the traditional viewpoint. Akopyan believes that Paul possesses notable skills and demonstrates a genuine commitment to the sport. According to the reporter, the upcoming match against Ben Askren will serve as an ideal evaluation of Paul’s abilities.
Heidi Fang, a sports multimedia journalist for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, agreed with the notion that Askren is ready for the challenge.
She expressed her belief that Askren is far superior to Nate Robinson as a fighter, stating that he is undoubtedly a strong contender and has put in significant effort to prepare for this match.
The presence of uncertainty is one of the factors that keeps fans intrigued, and when combined with effective promotion, it becomes a lucrative opportunity.
According to Ben Fowlkes, a senior writer at The Athletic and co-host of the Co-Main Event Podcast, the world of combat sports is drawn to extraordinary events, and this particular one is a remarkable combination of strange and intriguing elements.
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